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Dec 9th, 2010 - 06:11:56 |
Shoaib Khan
India wary as US cedes primacy to China over South Asia
Business Standard
Sunday, Nov 28, 2010
Jyoti Malhotra / New Delhi May 06, 2010
US assistant secretary of state for South & Central Asia Robert Blake flew straight from Thimphu to Beijing (via Dhaka and Bangkok) to attend the second round of the US-China Sub-Dialogue on South Asia along with his counterpart, Chinese vice-minister Wang Guangya, on May 4, an indication of rising US acceptance of Chinese interest and jurisdiction over South Asia.
Both Blake and Wang were in Thimphu last week to represent their countries as “observers” to the SAARC summit, at which the Chinese representative promised to “elevate friendly ties” (with SA
Chinese contribution of $300,000 to the SAARC Development Fund.
In fact, none other than US President Barack Obama has encouraged Chinese interest in South Asia. After his meeting with Chinese president Hu Jintao in Beijng in November 2009, China and the US pledged to “strengthen communication, dialogue and cooperation on issues related to South Asia.”
Indian officials were furious at the phrasing of the communiqué at the time, especially since the ink on the Indo-US nuclear deal agreement had barely dried. It reminded Delhi of the Bill Clinton-Jian Zemin statement of 1998, which in the wake of India’s nuclear tests, also promised closer coordination. But if the 1998 statement was limited to nuclear issues, the 2009 Obama-Hu statement clearly gave Beijing a pre-eminent position in Asia.
This week’s follow-up of the Sino-US dialogue has been followed closely in South Block and raised several eyebrows, but following the India-Pakistan return to its own talks in Thimphu and the recent, successful visit of External Affairs minister SM Krishna to Beijing, diplomats in Delhi are warily holding their peace.
In Beijing, the focus of the Blake-Wang conversation was said to be on Afghanistan. The Americans have been keen that China plays a more active role in that country. An offer to the Chinese to train the Afghan police is on the table, and Beijing is believed to have shown some interest on this score. So far, though, the Chinese are shying away from sending soldiers on the ground, insisting they will re-look at the situation only after the US-NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Srikanth Kondapalli, professor of Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University pointed out that that the Americans have been “very impressed with the Chinese dealing of the North Korean nuclear issue” and wanted Beijing to play a more active role on Teheran’s nuclear issue as well.
Kondapalli said the April meeting between Hu and Obama at the nuclear security summit in Washington has “yielded a lot of ground” both on AfPak matters as well as on closer coordination on Teheran.
Clearly, China’s “all-weather” relationship with Pakistan, its close ties with the Pakistan army and the ISI, seems to have also persuaded the US that it should persuade Beijing to move beyond its focus on exploitation of natural resources – such as the buying up of the Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan for $2 billion – and play a more strategic role in the AfPak region.
Chinese oversight in the AfPak region, the Americans believe, will not allow Pakistan from overplaying its hand as well as prevent weapons of mass destruction from falling into the hands of the Taliban.
Meanwhile, a difference of opinion seems to be building between the US and China over the question of Beijing promising two civilian nuclear power plants to Pakistan. While it is not clear whether this subject was discussed in the US-China dialogue on South Asia, Blake was quoted as saying on its margins that China would have to seek an “exception” from the Nuclear Suppliers Group if it wanted to supply those two reactors.
On the face of it, the strong anti-nuclear credentials of the Obama administration would imply that it would be very difficult for Beijing to get NSG permission for a nuclear deal for Pakistan, on the lines of the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Details of Pakistani nuclear scientist AQ Khan’s illegal sales of nuclear knowhow and equipment to Iran and Libya, among others, have hugely dented Islamabad’s reputation and if the Americans don’t push Pakistan’s case – as they did with Delhi – Chinese attempts at imitating the Indo-US nuclear deal with Pakistan may come a-cropper.
However, government sources pointed out that “Pakistan’s central importance in the Af-Pak great game could result in a softening of the US position.” Moreover, the sources said, a possible trade-off over Chinese support for US sanctions at the UN Security Council could be on the cards.
Even as Blake pointed to the need to take the NSG on board, Chinese officials argued that the two new nuclear power plants, Chashma-3 and Chashma-4 would only be “grandfathering” two previous nuclear plants, Chashma-1 and Chashma-2 (both 325 MW), for which the NSG had earlier given an exception.
China’s National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) had last month stated that China had signed a deal with Pakistan for two nuclear power plants of 340 MW each, worth $2.3 billion.
Clearly, the “grandfather” clause is a reference to the Russian sale of two 1000 MW civilian nuclear reactors to India, being built in Kudamkulam in Tamil Nadu, and likely to go onstream this year. The original agreement to sell the two reactors was signed between Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1989, but after the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Russians came under enormous pressure not to follow-through. In 1996, however, Moscow and Delhi signed a “supplement” to the 1989 agreement, for the supply of two plants at Kudamkulam, essentially “grandfathering” the 1989 deal.
However, it seems as if the Americans are also aware of India’s prickliness over the Obama administration’s “ceding” of primacy to China in Asia, and has offered a parallel dialogue with India, even as the US and China continue their own primary strategic dialogue. Deputy assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell was in Delhi last month, offering a series of meetings.
Nov 4th, 2010 - 09:46:52 |
Shoaib Khan
Crossfire War - Iran-China Axis Plan Attack Assignments Against India
By Willard Payne
News Blaze, 31st July, 2007
Night Watch: BEIJING - The Iran-China Military Axis of World War III is giving more indications their preparations for strategic (military) cooperation are complete, and that all they require is a regional crisis, a war, to take advantage of in order to display it in the field against a mutual enemy, which is of course India. This is an extension of Beijing's strategic relations with Pakistan China established in 1951, just one year after China's invasion of Tibet and just five years after their invasion of East Turkestan, which China promptly renamed Xinjiang province.
This could easily be called the "Belong to China" foreign policy since World War II instituted by Mao Tse Tung after he consolidated power and it became the greatest threat to security on the Asian mainland. Beijing announced it still has more invasions in mind when China Ambassdor to India, Sun Yuxi, proclaimed last November that northeast India-Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory. The following month Beijing conducted ground forces maneuvers with Islamabad just west of Kashmir. It conformed to the pattern of China's imperial military tradition of conducting invasions until they are stopped-defeated as they finally were when serious border fighting began with the Soviet Union in the mid-1960s and nearly became a nuclear war in 1975, which was nearly begun by Moscow. [IRNA]
The West that year convinced Russia, that though it supported Moscow's position, which the West had been investing in and financing for centuries, the Soviets should not use nuclear weapons to end the war and that is why I always suspected one of the reasons Moscow invaded Afghanistan in 1979 was to outflank China. The Soviet Union withdrew 10 years later because of the summit in Beijing between Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev and China's Central Government due to the emergence of radical Islam because of the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran under the Ayatollah Khomeini. The serious instability the beliefs he generated had the very real potential to destabilize all of Central Asia and threaten the West's ability to have access to resources in the region through Russia, so Moscow withdrew from the entire region at the end of the Cold War, 1990, to let the whole region go up in smoke, knowing it would give Russia's its excuse to attack the center and base of region's greatest threat and eventually, if need be Iran. That has led Moscow into wars in the Caucasus, fighting groups supported by Ankara-Tehran.
However, Beijing, instead of viewing radical Islam as a threat, decided to work with it and arm it with nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles, either directly or through North Korea. Despite the occasional uprisings the beliefs could inspire in Xinjiang province, which is almost entirely Islamic, Beijing knew Islamic extremism was more of a strategic partner to them than a problem. This was just an extension of Beijing's strategic relations with Islamabad. As a brief example of how Beijing intended to ultimately use its military support of Pakistan, China invaded India for one month, October 1962 into November, mostly in India's northeastern province of Arunachal Pradesh. The fighting extended south into Assam state near the Bay of Bengal. As a result of China's successes, India fired its Defense Minister. Therefore, China knew the foreign policy of Islamic governments that supported the Jihad, had the potential to damage three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia and make it difficult for another rival, Japan, to have access to raw materials through out Eurasia. That is why China sold the intermediate range CSS-2 missile to the House of Saud in the mid-1980s. (Reuters Feb. 15, 2004) The missile has a 2,500 mile (4,000 km) range and can strike all of India.
It is now reported the names of some of the officials Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for Asia - Pacific Affairs, Mehdi Safari is meeting, Dai Bingguo, China Vice-Foreign Minister and Li Zhaoxing, China Deputy Foreign Minister for Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Manager of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Bingguo stated at the meeting, "The Chinese government and its President give priority to the strategic relations with Iran. China underscores the importance of its own independent-seeking policy." This is as close Beijing will ever come to publicly admitting the real purpose of its military support of the Islamic world and that it is acting strictly in its own national interests, which coincide with Iran. At the meeting with Zhaoxing, Safari stated Iran is able to draw up an energy charter to cover the whole of Asia. This is obviously Tehran's way of saying that not only do they believe their war effort will be extremely successful, but that China's energy needs will be met and that is the foundation, the purpose of their military axis. [IRNA]
In an expression of the extreme concern of Allied governments to near completion of Iran-China's preparations and planning, the largest naval maneuvers since the India/Pakistan war of 1971 will take place in the Bay of Bengal in September. Well intended as this concern is I doubt it will have any impact on the war on the ground. The Allied navies participating are India-U.S.-Australia-Japan-Singapore. The Allied joint naval command does however have the potential of intercepting any advanced weaponry military-industrial services in China may attempt to send by the sea to Iran. [IRNA]
Aug 28th, 2010 - 03:18:53 |
Shoaib Khan
Visa row: India reads out riot act to Chinese envoy
TNN, Aug 28, 2010
NEW DELHI: India summoned the Chinese ambassador on Friday and has refused to allow visits of two Chinese military officials to protest against Beijing's refusal of a visa to a general in the Indian Army.
The discussion came after India, as reported by TOI on Friday, cancelled defence exchanges to protest against China refusing to allow the visit of an Indian Army general on the ground that his jurisdiction included "disputed" J&K. In a tit-for-tat response, India refused to allow the visits of two captain-level Chinese officers to Pachmarhi, and one colonel-level officer to National Defence College.
India was also cold to China's fence-mending bid by offering to send a colonel-level official to New Delhi for talks with joint secretary (international cooperation) in the defence ministry. With passions running high, there was no certainty that the government would allow the visit scheduled for September 7.
Chinese ambassador Zhang Yan met joint secretary (east Asia) Gautam Bambawale in the foreign office to discuss the issue against the backdrop of outrage in India over the the provocation and Beijing's anxiety to de-escalate tensions. The message India gave was that China was solely responsible for the current fracas and that the onus of untying the knot rested with it, said sources.
With the Congress and the BJP joining hands to lambast China over the refusal of visa to Lt General B S Jaswal, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of Northern Area Command, government made it clear that it was not going to let go of Beijing's latest effort to meddle in J&K. "The defence minister has taken a strong view. Talks on the issue will go on," minister of state for external affairs Preneet Kaur said.
Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwari reacted to the report in TOI by saying that the Chinse envoy should be summoned by the government and be told of the resentment its action has generated.
CPM, known for its sympathetic views on China, refused to react, arguing that there was no official word on the issue yet.
The BJP, however, came out strongly against China. Party spokesperson Prakash Javdekar said, "We must strongly condemn the Chinese on the issue. It is the worst kind of insult inflicted upon India by denying visa to Jaswal. It should be made clear to China that Kashmir is an integral part of India and not a disputed territory."
Party leader and former foreign minister Yashwant Sinha said, " Government of India should retaliate in kind. A very strong message should go to China that India will not take such pinpricks lying down."
The anger was in accord with the mood in the government which seems to be determined to engage in some bluntspeak with China. Until then, military exchanges will be on hold, sources said.
In a statement on Friday, the MEA spokesperson said, "While we value our exchanges with China, there must be sensitivity to each other's concerns. Our dialogue with China on these issues is ongoing." This is diplomatese for India's determination to refuse to negotiate on this issue.
However, the government was clear that this issue would not spill over to other sectors. For instance, border personnel meetings would not be cancelled or put on hold.
India has a modest defence relationship with China but with an intention to improve it so as to gain a greater understanding of each other's defence systems. However, on Kashmir, the PLA takes a stand that is designed to infuriate India and placate Pakistan's equally powerful military.
The Chinese approach to the Indian part of J&K is markedly different from its activities in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir where it is engaged in construction work. This has already been protested by India, with little effect on Chinese behaviour.
Jul 5th, 2010 - 06:56:18 |
Shoaib Khan
Pakistan and China move closer in nuclear embrace
REUTERS, Jul 5, 2010
BEIJING: China will display its determination to bolster ties with Pakistan this week, when visiting President Asif Ali Zardari is sure to receive effusive vows of loyalty, and perhaps firmer signs about a nuclear power project that symbolises the two neighbours' strategic embrace.
Zardari's visit, starting on Tuesday, appears meant to show that Beijing wants to ensure that Islamabad stays an "all-weather friend" while it frets about US influence on its doorstep from India to Afghanistan.
He will meet President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao for talks that may open the way to more Chinese investment in Pakistan, and possibly firm up Beijing's commitment to expanding the Chashma nuclear power complex in Punjab province.
Beijing has been preparing to build two new reactors at Chashma, where it has already built one and is finishing another, despite the qualms of Washington, New Delhi and other capitals.
China's willingness to risk foreign ire over the nuclear expansion shows its intensified commitment to Pakistan, said Andrew Small, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, who has studied China's ties with Pakistan.
"For China, the counter-balancing element of the Pakistan relationship is more important than it was a few years ago," Small said by telephone from Brussels, where he is based.
Chinese experts privately described the Chashma deal as a "counter-weight" to the partnership between India and the United States, who signed a nuclear power pact in 2008 that was dogged by controversy, said Small.
"With rising India, and the India-US factor, China's traditional element of backing Pakistan is back more in play," he said.
Rivals India and Pakistan both possess nuclear arsenals and refuse to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would oblige them to scrap those arsenals. China says the safeguards in place at Chashma ensure its role is entirely peaceful.
But critics say Pakistan's domestic instability and its past role spreading nuclear arms technology demand that Chashma come under firmer international vetting. Faced with these misgivings, China is unlikely to trumpet the project during Zardari's visit.
Beijing appears confident, however, that its plans to expand Chashma will not falter over possible opposition from the United States and its Western allies, said several experts.
Washington had little room to oppose outright the Chashma deal after it sealed its own energy pact with New Delhi, the experts said.
"To alienate Pakistan is not in the U.S. interest", Jing-dong Yuan, an expert on China's nuclear security policies at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California.
"But behind the scenes, the US may do something to get some deals or concessions out of this (Chashma) - to push China and Pakistan to do something by offering some assurances," said Yuan.
CHINA TIGHT-LIPPED
The Chinese foreign ministry has been tight-lipped about the deal to build the reactors at Chashma, but a trickle of announcements from Chinese nuclear companies shows they are preparing to start work at the site.
Chashma also offers Chinese nuclear exporters an opportunity to hone their prowess in building reactors abroad, said Mark Hibbs, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has closely followed developments over Chashma.
"The Chinese nuclear companies see Pakistan as a springboard," said Hibbs, noting Beijing's ambitions to expand its exports of reactors. "This additional construction project at Chashma helps keep them in the game."
But Beijing faces international worries about the expansion. China is a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a 46-country body that seeks to regulate atomic technology exports.
To receive nuclear exports, nations that are not one of the five officially recognised atomic weapons states must usually place all their nuclear activities under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency, say NSG rules.
When the United States sealed its nuclear power agreement with India in 2008, it wrangled a waiver from that rule. Washington has said China should seek a similar exemption for the planned reactors in Pakistan.
But Beijing stayed tight-lipped about Chashma at an NSG meeting last month and has not publicly sought an exemption. Such a bid would probably be opposed by some member states worried about Pakistan or what they see as the damaging precedent of another waiver to the usual nuclear export rules, said Hibbs.
"If there were an exemption process, it would be a Pandora's Box," he said.
As alternatives, China may ignore the NSG altogether - its rules are voluntary - or claim the planned Chashma plants were "grandfathered" under an agreement in place when China joined the Group in 2004, and so do not need another waiver. Outside of China, few governments or experts believe that claim.
Western powers ultimately may have to choose between protecting ties with Beijing and Pakistan or risking a diplomatic brawl.
"People don't want to get into an immediate fight with China before it seems absolutely necessary," said Small.
Jun 12th, 2010 - 10:42:35 |
Shoaib Khan
Pakistan Power Report Q1 2010 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
12th May, 2010.
The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.27% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a rising theoretical generation surplus before the country’s substantial transmission losses are taken into account. The Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,223 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of just 1.5% over the previous year thanks to
reduced economic expansion. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,624TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 33.3%.
Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,747TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,493TWh, implying 30.38% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.9%.
This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Pakistan’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 65.1TWh, or 1.13% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 1.03% of thermal generation.
For Pakistan, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2008 accounting for 50.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 29.0%, hydro-electric energy at 9.5% and coal with a 10.0% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,215mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 31.10% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Pakistan’s estimated 2009 market share of 1.61% is set to ease to 1.60% by 2014. The country’s estimated 2.5TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 6.0TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from an estimated 0.49% to 0.83% over the period.
Pakistan is now ranked 10th behind the Philippines in the updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) generation and healthy power consumption/energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset the industry strength, but the country is in a good position to keep clear of Hong Kong below.
The report forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 3.34% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 assumption being 2.00%. The population is expected to expand from 163.7mn to 178.9mn, with GDP per capita increasing by 36% and electricity consumption per capita rising by just 1%. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 73.7TWh in 2009 to 81.2TWh by the end of the forecast period, which provides a rising theoretical generation surplus (before transmission losses, etc.), assuming 4.3% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 60.5%, which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 23.4% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 30.1% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 30.1% in 2009-2014 to 33.8%, representing 74.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 79% in hydro-power use during 2009- 2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 32% between 2009 and 2019, with nuclear usage up 460% from a low base. More details of the long-term power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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